Very reliable recession indicator just went off

Liz Ann Sonders at Charles Schwab just tweeted that the 13 week Treasury interest rate is above that of the 10 year Treasury. This “inversion” measure is a very reliable predictor of recession to follow in about six months. Spring 2023 might be “interesting”. Liz is @lizannsonders on Twitter she’s worth a follow.

I think that’s the same as the 3mo / 10yr spread. Chart below:

1 Like

Yes. Yikes.

On the other hand… 3rd quarter GDP rose, breaking the two previous quarter declines. The latest increase offsets the combined first and second quarter decrease.

The inversion is not a real-time indicator. GDPNow is real-time, yield curve inversion is looking into 2023…