Liz Ann Sonders at Charles Schwab just tweeted that the 13 week Treasury interest rate is above that of the 10 year Treasury. This “inversion” measure is a very reliable predictor of recession to follow in about six months. Spring 2023 might be “interesting”. Liz is @lizannsonders on Twitter she’s worth a follow.
I think that’s the same as the 3mo / 10yr spread. Chart below:
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Yes. Yikes.
On the other hand… 3rd quarter GDP rose, breaking the two previous quarter declines. The latest increase offsets the combined first and second quarter decrease.
The inversion is not a real-time indicator. GDPNow is real-time, yield curve inversion is looking into 2023…