Is Recession on the Horizon?
March 14, 2025
Liz Ann Sonders • Kathy Jones
Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon analyze the dynamics and indicators that might indicate a recession is looming.
Click here to listen: https://schwab.com/learn/story/is-recession-on-horizon
Pros and cons of a recession? Lower interest rates? More layoffs? House prices start dipping more? Stock prices dip? Any good things to pivot off of in a recession?
It’s only “good” if you have dry powder to buy assets on sale… real estate, cars, stocks, high yield bonds, even TIPS (inflation protected bonds) will go on sale (look at 2009 and COVID).
I guess it’s a “good” time to do Roth conversions? Or take capital gains / harvest capital losses? Because stock prices are depressed?
Good time to be a bankruptcy attorney? Repo man tow truck operators?
So on balance, it sucks for the average person. Especially for people trying to get their first job. Ask any person who graduated high school or college May/June 2009.
These guys are late to the party. I talk to businessmen every day and they all say the same thing- sales are off. It probably started in December, as we look back.
The temp labor office in my office building closed up shop. Demand for temp labor dries up as an economy slows.
The fact that petroleum is priced so low is another clue. Other resource prices, except possibly food, will probably follow.
The Chinese debt bubble is imploding. Airline and hotel bookings are down.
Housing built close to my office is not selling for the price they desired, if it even sells at all. I have never seen such a construction bonanza in my lifetime.
So as usual, watch for the FED to reverse course and suppress interest rates, which will sow the seeds for another bother.
For those with cash, there will be bargains. It will be an excellent time to take a vacation.