Are We Nearing the EV Tipping Point?

Many experts in market analytics believe that when EV’s hit 10% of of new car sales the demand for them will take off.

What do the forum members here think of that? Is 10% of total new car sales the magic mark that will take us into the the electric age and spell the end of the ICE car?

There has been a discussion here on the Big Island where a few people with RVs are discussing that we only have a few charging stations and many of them are not working at times. Even the fast charge one outside the electric company is often in use or not working. Target and Walmart have some, but not many others yet. It is possible to drive across the island on a charge I hear, especially with cars that do not use much power on the downhill as 1/2 the tips is uphill and 1/2 down :slight_smile:

Like the man said “We are gonna need a bigger boat!”

Are EVs still being subsidized with tax credits in the U.S.?

If so until there is a 10-15 year track record of ownership cost analysis without subsidies as compared to an ICE vehicle I don’t think this can be answered.

Maybe more will buy one, but the charging infrastructure still isn’t there.

Although I have never charged my EV anywhere but my home, and we only use it for local travel, I have two friends with EV’s who have ventured out on long trips with theirs. One has a KIA EV6 and the other owns a Tesla Model 3, both have ranges a little over 300 miles. Both people said the trip was not a hassle and they enjoyed doing it, especially the fuel costs @ 4 cents to less than 10 cents a mile.

Most EVs will go from Hilo to Kialua-Kona AND back without charging no problem. And since EV’s are three times more efficient AND charge their batteries while going downhill the grades involved don’t pose a problem.

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How many days out of the year do you drive over 200 miles?

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I think those kind of objections will melt away as more people jump on the EV bandwagon.

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I think those kind of objections will melt away as more people jump on the EV bandwagon.

About once a month. Enough that relying solely on an electric car would be inconvenient. I would like to have an electric car just to do all of my around town stuff, and then have another car for longer trips. We ended up getting a plugin hybrid that allows us to do both.

I have friends who own hybrids and they like them. I just can’t convince myself to buy something with that many moving parts. It’ll be interesting to see how they hold together in the long term. We use our ICE car for round trips over 200 miles.

How would that be cost effective as compared to having one vehicle that would meet your current needs?

I don’t pay much attention to EV prices, but are they coming down?

We need two cars anyway. So, when it’s time to replace mine I’ll seriously consider an EV that we can use for everything nearby. And maybe by then the infrastructure will have improved. But until then we have a car we can use for long trips that is decently efficient.

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You can get a new Tesla model 3 for $41,630 and that’s before the $7,500 tax credit. It has a range of 272 miles and does 0-60 in 4 seconds.


What did that upgrade cost?

I had an electrician run #8 copper wires in metal conduit from my main panel in my garage over to a handy spot for the charger, the 60-amp breaker, the conduit, the wire and labor was about $900 and the charger was $700. I got a FIT credit of $400 for installing the charger which charges at the rate of 35 miles an hour. So four hours of charging gets 140 miles of travel. I rarely go over that in one day and I usually have all night to charge it. I just checked Amazon and it looks like the charger I bought now costs $599.

My real estate background tells me that an installed EV charger in the garage adds at least that much to my home’s resale value.

Probably true, perhaps even more

I don’t see it as an objection but an observation.

The vast majority of people see the EV industry as still in its infancy. The average age for a vehicle is now 12.2yrs.

Until the industry has a 10-15 year or better yet a 20-25 year cost benefit analysis compared to an ICE vehicle for the average family or person there are still a lot of unknowns that haven’t bore out yet but they will in time. Now the manufacturers are making a lot of claims but most remain unproven via longevity of personal experiences.

There are many as of yet unanswered let alone undiscovered questions. To name just a couple how will EVs perform on average in very cold weather climates such as upper tier states when it comes to distance and charging rates? After 12.2 years what will be a trade in or resell value of the average EV especially ones that have the original battery? Will the battery last the average length of a car now, 12.2yrs? Not to mention future electrical needs and rates.

I am glad there are pioneers, that will jump on almost any new band wagon, in this space as I am happy to let them take the arrows. But for the average person or family me included we will remain disciplined until many more issues are known and we can evaluate them ourselves as they apply to our budgets and not by manufacturer or industry claims.

I don’t see how we can even be near an EV tipping point.

I think you are right, your comment is an observation. But observations are, by their very nature, observed through the lens of the observer and conclusions reached from them can vary widely. Also, the American car market is not driven by economic logic, it is driven by things like emotion, perceived value, competition, status, wealth and ease of use.

If every car buyer used the logic you are using you might have a valid point. But the average car buyer does not depend upon a 10-t0-15-year cost-benefit analysis before they buy a new car. Cars are too important a tool in the average America’s life to wait that long.

The question of battery life is a minor one. Right now most EV manufacturers will warrant a 100,000 mile useable battery life. I’m willing to compare the battery life of today’s EVs to the mechanical power and drive train of the average ICE vehicle any day. The cost of EV batteries is tracking downward while the cost of an ICE vehicle’s drive train is doing the opposite.

I own a Volvo EV which is made in Belgium and is used widely in Sweden and other N. European countries. Stockholm, Sweden’s biggest city, is located at 59 degrees N latitude, the Canadian border lies at 49 degrees N latitude. In June of 2023 plug-in EV sales were 62% of the new car market in Sweden. I live in ID, which borders Canada, I’m not worried about my EV not working in cold weather. It worked just fine last winter. That concern is a non issue.

I’d like to live in a place where I can ride the BIG EV… a train. I may have to retire overseas to do that.

My thinking is that although EVs are more efficient than ICEs, from the point of view of climate change mitigation that’s a bit like saying that a .22 is less lethal than a .45 so we should go through a big industrial and social change to get everyone to swap out their .45s for .22s so that suicide rate will go down.

If everyone on earth wanted to live an American lifestyle, I think the finding was we’d need 6 or 7 earths to support that. Making the fleet XX % more efficient won’t get us to where we need to be.

Can you tell I’m not optimistic?