I do have to admit that the unemployment rate might soon be headed upward.
Strange, according to some sources we’re approaching or are already in a recession… it could happen, but predictions of the death of the economy just might be somewhat premature as M. Twain might have put it.
They have dropped the word, “new” as in 372,000 NEW jobs, possibly meaning many jobs are actually returning to work after cuts and layoffs.
And your point is???
New means new, as if it did not exist before. They are new.
Returning to work to an existing job means it already existed.
If the economy added 372K jobs but 100K already existed, then new jobs is actually 272K.
To investors, etc, who care about such things, it’s important.
We are in an unusual economic cycle in that the jobs still have not fully returned to pre-Covid levels, but the workforce is much smaller, thus there are lots of openings. Another interesting situation is that the economy is slowing and we will see GDP decline for a 2nd quarter in a row, thus a recession. In normal times the Fed would be cutting rates to counter the slowing economy but is instead having to raise rates to contain the historical levels of inflation.
Well the forecasts I’ve seen seem to predict slow growth in the 2nd quarter. And GDP is not the one and only recession predictor of recession. Jobs are still strong, and consumer spending is still strong. The first quarter dip followed a really strong 2021 in general, Your gloom and doom will sell better on the other Lost Forum I suspect.
You know, I’ll be the 372k who actually are getting a paycheck don’t give a rat’s hind end whether the job’s a “new” one or a reclamation. And 272k, new ones isn’t chopped liver anyway.
Reality isn’t doom and gloom…its just reality. The crushing inflation will naturally slow down consumer spending and the Fed will do the rest with their tightening and QT. Housing is also finally starting to level off due to increased mortgage rates, which decreasing affordability. The Fed was a little too late to the game this time.
There are still some good aspects of the economy. Jobs are definitely strong due to the reduced labor participation. The recreational travel industry is returning to pre-Covid levels. The household net worth reports show people with much stronger cash positions and equity levels in primary residences is at an all-time high I believe.
There is only so much that cheerleading can do…
We are in a recession and the numbers coming out in a few days will confirm that. Economists define a recession as negative GDP growth over two consecutive quarters. The first quarter of 2022 declined about 1.4%. The second quarter decline will be greater because in order for the growth to be positive, GDP would have to exceed the rate of inflation.
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Confirmation of what a few of us objectively were saying:
Good news is that the Fed now has two months to observe their historic back-to-back 75bps hikes on the economy. Inflation is going to be here awhile and will naturally help slow the economy along with the increased cost of capital…