What necessary factors went into making the stock market perform poorly in the decades between Kennedy and Reagan? Do we have any of those factors now?
Not sure if they are major things but Nixon went off Gold Standard, deregulating and automating trading, then making trading easier to access for the regular person. Maybe also the decline of pensions and the rise of 401ks which dumped huge money into the markets? Don’t forget you could put your money in savings or CDs and get up to double digit SAFE returns until they slashed interest rates.
Stocks took a tumble during Kennedy, then did great until the late 1960s. From late 60s to 1982 they were AWFUL especially accounting for the ravages of inflation.
Here is a table I use every now and then as a reference chart:
Look at the nominal SP500 value for 1966 and compare to 1982. It is $2,692.74 in 1966 and then becomes $9105.08 in 1982. I ran the percentages gain on the SP500 from 1966 to 1982. It checks out right. I see a paradox. What am I missing?
@AustinBonds Look at your column headings… your S&P500 return includes dividends. Total return is better when you include dividends, but if you just take the index value, the S&P500 went nowhere from late 60s to early 80s, and worse with inflation. See this chart, tick the “inflation adjusted” box on and off to see. Consider that high fees in the 60s and 70s and taxes (IRAs started late1974) would have soaked up most of that that dividend.
The nominal dollar value went up. But, yeah, you couldn’t invest in a Vanguard SP500 index fund back then, so it is moot. Was inflation that bad from 1966 to 1982 math-wise? The buying power of $2700 in 1966 was much better than the buying power of $9100 in 1982? I’ve read that that era was really bad for stocks. Hard to compare nowadays. Even the lost investment decade of ca. 2000 to 2009 went by without much outcry of inflation. Guess the stagflation and WIN stuff coupled with gas prices was a bit more drawn out.
Looks like 1973 and 1974 were the worst years and decimated any real gains in the stock market.
@AustinBonds I have the inflation calculator on my phone… let’s look at 1966 to 1982… to have $100 of 1966 buying power you had to cough up $298.48 dollars in 1982. That’s 7% SUSTAINED COMPOUNDED INFLATION over that entire period. It was misery, really signaled the beginning of the end of the great American century. We’re closer to the end of the end now. One more big financial crisis and bad things will be happening across society. It’s not even terribly bad times objectively speaking, and look at how society is fraying. What happens when it’s really bad times again? I worked in a bike shop in 1980, and we had weekly price changes, we didn’t tag items, we looked up prices on a computer printout.
I don’t know how things will go if we get another prolonged era of 7% inflation. It won’t be good though. Could you see how people would respond to a quantum jump decrease in standard of living?
A big part of me wants to start hoarding cash and dial back any fresh market contributions but as the bogleheads have stated all the time, we just don’t know what to expect.
So…define “high net worth person.”
That leaves a pretty wide range of possibilities… anything from $750K to $2M… that covers most people I know and probably most of the folks here on this board for HINW. The “accredited investor” requirement is $1M joint spousal net worth which covers an even larger demographic.
@H200h there’s your answer. The rest is private
So why boast about it?
@H200h I’m trying to communicate that I’m a successful investor. It’s best to get investment tips from a wealthy person, as opposed to someone who has a Robinhood account with $75 worth of GME and AMC. I will freely share everything I do. On the other side, there are lots of meme stock “apes” who are very liberal with their advice and opinions (the entire WSB phenomenon) and they will wreck you. I am not them. If you are bothered… close your eyes and don’t read my posts.
I’d advise you to leave a generous tip for lady luck when you finish drinking at the braggadocio bar, it might delay the inevitable and unpleasant meal of crow that most stock market “experts” experience.
@H200h I don’t have time for people like you. EOM
We’re in more trouble since this is starting not ending with Jimmy Carter in office