How do we manage the grid with the expected +100 million EV’s?

I agree and the EV’s are not going to appear overnight.

The expansion curve for both is likely to be codependent.

The challenge we face today is the fact we have to phase out the major energy source, fossil fuels, while at the same time, cope with diminishing hydro power. All of this has to be considered while sorting out and fine-tuning suitable eco-friendly replacements.

I don’t think that’s gonna be a slam-dunk. We are in for some daunting challenges if we are to continue our comfortable ways of life.

It’s terrible that climate change reduces hydropower capabilities but there it is - unintended consequences and negative feedback loops.

Climate change likely increases the total amount of global precipitation. But the facilities needed to take advantage of that stored energy potential, once built, typically aren’t portable.

And the locations of precipitation change… And more rain than snow, generally. Really screws things up

Absolutely!

At current efficiency, a solar farm large enough to power the country would be 22,000 sq miles, or the size of Lake Michigan. Increase solar efficiency to 20% and that’s reduced to 10,000 sq miles or the size of Lake Erie.

But neither of those are necessary as home owned solar panels would offset the need for a national grid. However, at ~$20,000 not every home owner can have such a system even with prices coming down.

So it will be a complex balance and so many unknowns and there is currently no practical solution to “no sun” periods. Massive storage is possible but that needs more R & D.

During my career as Project Manager for an international company we constructed large mfg. and rail plants in Germany, California, and Taiwan. As we progressed on every project and continued to face new problems, it became obvious that, “We don’t even know what we don’t know.”

Renewable energy for the country will have endless barriers.

No, not a slam-dunk.

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/how-much-land-power-us-solar/#:~:text=According%20to%20a%20report%20from,14%25%20efficiency%20for%20solar%20modules.

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Is solar practical for your place?

An interacting map

These guys say 100 sq miles:

22,000 or 100 sq miles? We have a case of dueling experts.
Who to believe? We’ll know when they build it.
[probably somewhere in between]

It seems we have two estimates from Musk, 10,000 and 100 sq miles

solar1

I take 100 miles square, the quote, to be 100 x 100. That equals 10,000.

Agreed… :nerd_face: “a pound of crop is worth a ton of theory.” :man_farmer:

Musk’s flubbed estimates of delivery dates of his CyberTruck are not a good sign.

It’s a mistake in the link to the article. :face_with_monocle: The actual article title says 10 mi X 10 mi.

ie: " Elon Musk: Running U.S. on Solar Requires 100 Square Miles of Panels"

If we totaled up all the land area that is used to produce fuels to create electricity in the country, including fossiI-fuel and hydro power, I would imagine it might come close the land area solar would require. Coal mining alone would be pretty substantial.

example: The Alaska Oil pipeline is 800 miles long and requires a 50’ to 300’ strip of dedicated land along it’s entire length. In addition to the land area required, it affects everything from migrating caribou to river traffic.

And the Feds say it would take 22,000 sq miles to power the US.

Musk vs the Feds… A choice between the devil and the deep blue sea… :nerd_face: :upside_down_face: :crazy_face:

A wild card in the calc’s:

" Solar panels can also be installed on rooftops with essentially no land use impacts, and it is projected that more than one in seven U.S. homes will have a rooftop solar PV system by 2030."

This will have a huge impact on the expanded grid. Why build a gigantic system if many home owners don’t need it? Home solar panels will continue to rise as costs drop.

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Yes, i see more and more solar panels on home roofs, but I also see solar panels on parking shade structures and rooftops at more and more large businesses. ASU has probably a square mile or more of solar panels. They also have some smaller wind turbines on rooftops.

I just heard this on NPR. Nothing exciting but… it starts:


Californians have been urged not to charge their electric cars during peak hours as the Golden State sweats through the second week of record-breaking temperatures. Coming on the heels of the state government banning the sale of gasoline cars by 2035, the irony is pretty hard to miss.

On one hand, the searing reality of the climate crisis could not be more clear, but on the other, the power grid’s readiness for a fully electric future remains an open question.


Irony and the effect of unintended consequences is a constant companion of human attempts to “make thing better” for themselves.

One advantage of the horseless carriage was that it eliminated the contamination of urban streets by horse manure deposited there by a horse-powered transportation system. ICE-powered cars, trucks and buses were, at the time, the healthy choice.