Dow breaks 32,000... How low can it go

The Stock Market is looking like the Limbo.
For a while, the Dow bounced around 35000. That seemed OK.
But now things are getting serious.

Retail is especially hard hit… especially Target.
Interesting that Target is being hit far more than Walmart.

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There’s this guy Charles Nenner who has been calling for Dow 5000 for years. I don’t take him seriously but he’s always nattering at me in my mind, the guy was at Goldman Sachs and manages other people’s money so he’s not a total crank. No one expected New Orleans and Houston to get severely flooded in hurricanes either. I’ve lived through both events.

But seriously, it could go lower, certainly at least as low as the pre-COVID high in early 2020. At that point it could bounce but I have no crystal ball, no one does. Just buy when everyone hates it, sell when everyone loves it. Unfortunately, people mostly do the opposite.

and now Kohl’s

Is shopping changing forever?
Has the Pandemic changed our habits forever?
Will we become hermits doing everything from Home… seldom going out?

I like Kohls… but have not been in one in over a year.
Aside from Groceries… most of our shopping has been on-line.

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The way people shop was changing before covid, and the virus just supercharged the change. The amount of stuff we buy online is probably 10x what it was 3-4 years ago. Mainly because it’s pretty much hassle free. No traffic, no crowds, no waiting in line, not much downside. Always still check pricing, but it’s usually very competitive and often cheaper.

Slightly different topic, but yesterday my son said his main economic indicator is how many Amazon trucks he sees a day. He said recently he is only seeing a fraction of what he saw a few months ago.


The easy answer is “YES,” shopping is changing forever.

The reason is simple, everything changes forever and always has. Sears Robuck & Co. got their start in much the same way that Amazon did. Sears did it by satisfying rural America’s hunger for mass-manufactured goods through the delivery of catalogs thru the US mail system and products delivered via the rail system. Amazon did it with the Internet, foreign supply chains and a trucking system over our Interstate hwy system.

Shopping malls flourished because retailers could display their goods more effectively in large glass windows of storefronts in a climate-controlled mall with attractive amenities that shoppers found convenient and pleasant.

But the need for lower prices, higher profits, more effective online marketing and even more shopper convenience, pushed the consumer-product manufacturing and Marketing paradigm to where it is today.

But it won’t stay there, because the phenomena of change is one thing that will not change.

This is not a new thing, the discovery of it happened over 2,500 years ago, blame it on this guy:

Walmart is down 25% in a month. Not in a day, but that’s a bad haircut for a retailer of consumer staples

Walmart down from 160 to 120 in 30 days.
Pretty Frightening!

Where does this go.
I remember when A&P had corner stores. Later Mom and Dad would drive the one car on Saturdays to the first of Supermarkets… not so Super then.

Then came the big discount stores… 2 Guys, EJ Korvettes, and Gibson’s. Seems most failed due to not controlling Inventory. WalMart figured that out.

But we are in another era. Instead of going to Walmart with what is now considered a limited selection, we have the world at our finger tips. When I see myself ordering mundane items like batteries and Light bulbs from Amazon, I know the world has changed.

If Walmart had not added Food in 1988, I think they might be on the ropes also.

I order from I find better prices than Amazon. I’m going to try home grocery delivery by getting a free trial of Walmart+ (plus).

I have ordered from also, with good results… but only for larger $$$ items.

For items less than $50, seems easier to go Amazon with Prime.

During the Pandemic, we ordered Groceries from Walmart. wife is very picky about produce and some of the substitutions were not so great.

From the number of order pickers we see in Walmart… this seems to be very popular, I just wonder how profitable this is and the pickers seem to jam up the aisles for in-person shoppers. On the other hand, the order pickers know the store and are a good source of where things are.