I don’t actively chase the rate any more. This is for anyone who wants to try:
I don’t chase either. I buy various kinds of bonds at Fidelity or Schwab
I am still not sure how you know what rate you will get with the 1 month, 2 month, 26 week, etc T bills before auction. I can buy new issue treasuries at Vanguard but they do not show the rates, at least not readily shown. Do I have to look up the rates by cusip number? I am using CNBC’s bond page to determine best rate right now:
another week til the fed meeting. rates might get another 0.75% boost. t-bills paying 3%
The Fed only controls overnight rates. The T-bill market is front-running the Fed. If the Fed boosts 0.75% next meeting you won’t see the T-Bills go up quite that much. They’ve already gone up
I sort of get it. They call the treasury securities pricing an auction, so it is subject to what the market prices in for the t bills. What will see rise with the fed rate increase? Mostly money markets and banks like an Ally which will maybe take any money they pay 1.25% to an account holder and buy the 2.2% bills, thereby grossing nearly 1% with other people’s money? How about mortgage rates? Are they more affected by the 10yr rate?
I am keeping an eye on short term CDs as well. Seems like anything above 3% for less than 5 years has a callable feature. These increased interest rates are after how many years of near zero interest? I want to ladder fixed income at this point. Waiting to see when we get to a maximum rate to do a bigger and long term holding purchase.
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I’m looking at iShares iBonds ETFs (not to be confused with US Savings Bonds Series I) and I like them more and more. I’m going to buy some at Schwab instead of using Schwab Money Market fund. I’d rather have an ETF with short term Treasuries than a Money Market with God knows what in it … commercial paper
What kind of capital gain is possible with an iBond? I am looking at IBDR, for example. In 2026, will the share price have climbed up to track underlying bond redemption values?
You could have a gain or loss. Depends on the interest rates on the day you buy and the underlying coupon rates. If it was a zero coupon bond (it is not) you’d always be buying at a discount and getting back more money at maturity than you put in. But you might be buying at a premium too, if the coupon rate is higher than rates on the day you buy.
But as maturities approach the ETF will get less and less volatile, more cash-like, and it will converge on a fixed share price and not change, then the ETF will disappear and iShares will deliver cash back to you.
Vanguard raised their money market from 1.53% to 1.84%. Interesting to see that the one I am looking at was started July 31 1981. The average annual return was 3.89% since then.
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Beware of that Money Market Fund is not FDIC insured, and there is an expense involved. The return is less than most high-yield, FDIC insured online saving accounts for the past seven years at least.
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No FDIC insurance is like smoking, or driving without seatbelts. Will you be alive in a year? Probably…
So what to do? Keep rolling the cash side money over into CDs and US treasuries?
Sure as long as it beats bank deposits. That’s my emergency money or relocate in a few years money. Not going to take risks. I have enough money exposed to market risks
52 week Treasury Bills yielding 3.3% now
For a time frame of 1-2 years, I doubt you will beat the Series I Bonds. Inflation is going to be here for at least the next couple of reset periods and you are getting almost 9.5% now. Granted there is a limitation of $10k per person.
I max out Series I annually
Looks like rates are not going to vary much until the next Fed meeting? Inflation supposedly has plateau’d? Possibly we will have reduced rates if the traders think the next rate increase will be 0.50% as opposed to a harsh 0.75% ?
Seems like that but now some Fed Governors are going on talking tours saying they will keep hiking until inflation quelled.