The cost of that type of ATC system would be greater than the cost of all the vehicles most probably.
There are many wonderful things that could be done… but consumers in aggregate and the government at all levels are broke and in debt…
The big variable in that equation is reliable quantum computing. When you consider it has the potential to increase today’s compute power by factors of millions or billions the results are unimaginable. When combined with AI, quantum computers will likely make things like teleportation a reality.
The thing standing in the way right now is getting the things called “Qbits” to maintain quantum entanglement (coherence) long enough to execute programed instructions.
Beam me up, Scotty! 
Responding to:
See-and-avoid VFR-type flight would likely be impossible, even with AI doing 100% of the flying and nav. Onboard AI would have to interface with a central traffic control communicating with every vehicle in the controlled airspace and designated ground-to-air transition zones within.
The cost of that type of ATC system would be greater than the cost of all the vehicles most probably.
The big variable in that equation is reliable quantum computing. When you consider it has the potential to increase today’s compute power by factors of millions or billions the results are unimaginable. When combined with AI, quantum computers will likely make things like teleportation a reality.
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These sound like things that you both have said before, and nobody has bothered to set you straight. You say them so matter-of-factly, and they’re just made-up nonsense.
No, we don’t need “quantum computers” or a “central command center” for drone autonomous navigation. We already have cars and toy drones that have autonomous modes.
Additionally, these systems will have lidar, radar, and who knows what else, in addition to cameras. Lidar already only costs about $500 per vehicle in volume.
When these drones are mass-produced and owned by large corporations, the math will work. And as much as I am against the “you will own nothing and be happy.” I could be happy without having to own a vehicle.
Let’s look at your proposed scenario. A simple experiment should give you an indication of just how practical uncoordinated individual autonomous flying vehicles might be in a crowded airspace.
Just take 10 or 15 toy drones that are equipped as you describe, put them all in a 10’ x 10’ x 8’ room, assign one person to each drone and have them individually and randomly direct their drones to destinations within the confines of that room.
I predict collisions and chaos…. predicting another land vehicle’s position, lateral speed and direction is one thing. You can always hit the brakes and stop. But flying vehicles don’t have brakes when flying and they travel at higher speeds. Predicting another aircraft’s lateral speed and direction plus vertical speed and direction and making decisions in time to avoid collisions is a reach, doing it for dozens of aircraft is pretty much impossible.
I’m familiar with LIDAR, about the only added advantage over radar it brings to the table is a more precise definition of scanned objects, like color, texture, patterns, DIMs, etc.
You wrote:
I predict collisions and chaos…. predicting another land vehicle’s position, lateral speed and direction is one thing. You can always hit the brakes and stop. But flying vehicles don’t have brakes when flying and they travel at higher speeds. Predicting another aircraft’s lateral speed and direction plus vertical speed and direction and making decisions in time to avoid collisions is a reach, doing it for dozens of aircraft is pretty much impossible.
I’m familiar with LIDAR, about the only added advantage over radar it brings to the table is a more precise definition of scanned objects, like color, texture, patterns, DIMs, etc.
Yes, I’m sure you think you do. But a lot of what you say isn’t based on technology from the last ten years or with an understanding of how rapidly things are changing. For example, I bought several of these five years ago for about $10 each to fly around my house for our dogs to chase:
Mini Quadcopter Drone, F36 Mini RC Drone 2.4G 4CH 6Axis Gyro Remote Control Nano Drone
These cheap toy drones have collision avoidance built in, so when they get close to objects, walls, or ceilings, they immediately reverse course. These are five-year-old $10 drones with one tiny, garbage sensor.
Again, these five-year-old $10 toy drones do collision avoidance.
Now, regarding LIDAR, the most important thing it’ll do for passenger drones is collision avoidance. It can “see” in conditions that cameras can not, which adds another strong layer of safety in addition to what cameras can see.
Additionally, passenger drones will have transponders that will communicate with other nearby drones to manage traffic.
None of the safety stuff is complicated, even with old tech.
Time will tell. My money is on metro-area centrally controlled commuter systems using AI and quantum hardware. When the passenger drone arrives to pick people up it will already have the route to the destination filed with central control.
Quantum systems combined with AI will allow ongoing software migration and real-time testing and implementation that will avoid legacy software/hardware problems we have now in our air traffic control systems.
I think they avoid obstacles in their flight path. That’s quite different than collision avoidance between two or more aircraft in motion.
And two years ago your money was on electric vehicles. Look at what a disaster that has been to the auto industry.
When I watch prediction films from half a century ago they talk about “central traffic control.” And science fiction films from years ago liked the idea too. But it’s a tired, outdated concept. Yes, transportation will have transponders and a system will keep track of it all. But it won’t be making most of the decisions.
Current AI could replace human ATC and perform 100% flawlessly. You seem to like saying “Quantum systems” because it’s easy to throw out there versus applying real world tech.
My money is still on electric vehicles, I feel sorry for those who aren’t in a position to own and drive them. They are much cheaper to drive, perform better, have a lot less maintenance and don’t pollute nearly as much as ICE cars.
Do you ever check your traffic route vis GPS before you head out to work? That’s a central system.
Your money might be on electric vehicles, but they’ve been a disaster for the auto industry, the country, and the environment. And they’re being powered mostly by coal plants. Between the high cost of these vehicles and their depreciation, they have been a disaster for the people who bought them. “Oh, but I saved on gas!”
Do you ever check your traffic route vis GPS before you head out to work? That’s a central system.
You saying that is a good illustration of how confused you are about technology. No, GPS is NOT a central system. Navigational units that use GPS receive satellite data and calculate location from it. Now, SOME navigation units also have a cellphone connection, or connect to a phone’s cellular connection, to transmit and receive traffic data. This traffic data is displayed on your navigation unit, but is NOT GPS.
You are correct that GPS is not a centralized system, I was using GPS receivers and Loran receivers for navigation when you were probably still in diapers. As a planning facilitator I also worked with a team taking the raw satellite data and making it usable in computer programs to overcome mapping errors introduced by things like the earth being an “oblate spheroid’ rather than a true sphere. Without those conversions to numerical data we wouldn’t have services like Google Maps today. So unless you are looking at LAT/LON data when you plan your route to work you are using a centralized source of compiled data on your cellphone or dashboard.
Using conventional computer technology to support AI is like using a horse-drawn wagon to take a space vehicle to the launchpad. It’s why you hear so many complaints about the power consumption of data centers today.
Quantum computers will be able to cut power and time requirements down to tiny fractions of what today’s supercomputers are capable of. And it’s also why every capable country and enterprise is spending billions of dollars to be first to have the technology.
All you need to know about quantum computers is that they are thousands to billions of times faster than today’s fastest compters. And with supercomputers speed is what is important.
I’ll take you at your word that a very long time ago, you worked in pioneering technologies.
I must sadly advise you that this is 2025, and most of what you’re saying now is wrong and outdated.