Is Stagflation in Our Future?

Way back in the 1970’s I remember economists talking about a thing called “stagflation.” It described a situation where our economy kinda stalled out, remaining stuck in a point between an inflation and a recession cycle. The thing that sets off a stagflation cycle is a shock to the economic system.

The shock that triggered the 1970’s stagflation was the oil embargo. We are in the process of recovering from the economic effects of the COVID global pandemic.

Is stagflation next?

As I recall stagflation in the 70’s lasted into til about 82. I think this was preceeded by a wage and price freeze.

Another case of unintended consequences… :slightly_smiling_face:

I’m convinced the “stag” part, stagnation, is in our future. The public, corporate, and private debt levels are so high, there is no other alternative. When AI starts throwing white collar workers out on the street, that’s going to slow things down. The “flation” part I completely don’t know about. AI is disinflationary, but eventually another energy crisis will hit because we’ve not invested enough in energy, so those things will be in a tug of war. I just don’t know. I just buy my full $15,000 of US Treasury Series I Savings Bonds every year. I have enough which are five years old or older to completely get rid of my bank savings account and just consume my oldest I-Bonds if I need to, since I’m always buying them I won’t run out.