# Very reliable recession indicator just went off

**URL:** <https://community.clark.com/t/very-reliable-recession-indicator-just-went-off/1538>\
**Category:** Uncategorized\
**Created:** [October 26, 2022, 1:34pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/very-reliable-recession-indicator-just-went-off/1538 "2022-10-26T13:34:21Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 5\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![ochotona](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/community.clark.com/ochotona/32/293_2.png) [@ochotona](https://community.clark.com/u/ochotona)\
**Post date:** [October 26, 2022, 1:34pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/very-reliable-recession-indicator-just-went-off/1538/1 "2022-10-26T13:34:21Z")

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Liz Ann Sonders at Charles Schwab just tweeted that the 13 week Treasury interest rate is above that of the 10 year Treasury. This “inversion” measure is a very reliable predictor of recession to follow in about six months. Spring 2023 might be “interesting”. Liz is @lizannsonders on Twitter she’s worth a follow.

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**Author:** ![butler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ac91a4/32.png) [@butler](https://community.clark.com/u/butler)\
**Post date:** [October 26, 2022, 3:17pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/very-reliable-recession-indicator-just-went-off/1538/2 "2022-10-26T15:17:51Z")

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I think that’s the same as the 3mo / 10yr spread. Chart below:

> **[10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M)**
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> 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![ochotona](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/community.clark.com/ochotona/32/293_2.png) [@ochotona](https://community.clark.com/u/ochotona)\
**Post date:** [October 26, 2022, 3:38pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/very-reliable-recession-indicator-just-went-off/1538/3 "2022-10-26T15:38:41Z")

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Yes. Yikes.

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**Author:** ![H200h](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e79b87/32.png) [@H200h](https://community.clark.com/u/H200h)\
**Post date:** [October 28, 2022, 8:04pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/very-reliable-recession-indicator-just-went-off/1538/4 "2022-10-28T20:04:26Z")

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On the other hand… 3rd quarter GDP rose, breaking the two previous quarter declines. The latest increase offsets the combined first and second quarter decrease.

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**Author:** ![ochotona](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/community.clark.com/ochotona/32/293_2.png) [@ochotona](https://community.clark.com/u/ochotona)\
**Post date:** [October 28, 2022, 8:16pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/very-reliable-recession-indicator-just-went-off/1538/5 "2022-10-28T20:16:50Z")

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The inversion is not a real-time indicator. GDPNow is real-time, yield curve inversion is looking into 2023…