# Impending Recession Just Doesn't Seem Inevitable Perhaps **URL:** \ **Category:** Uncategorized\ **Created:** [July 11, 2023, 8:39pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165 "2023-07-11T20:39:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![geezerpk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/f475e1/32.png) [@geezerpk](https://community.clark.com/u/geezerpk)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2023, 8:39pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/1 "2023-07-11T20:39:01Z")
It’s certainly not time to declare victory, but the U.S. economic engine just keeps beating the odds so far. The somewhat fabled soft landing could be a real possibility. > **[Whatever happened to that big recession we were supposed to have?](https://news.yahoo.com/whatever-happened-to-that-big-recession-we-were-supposed-to-have-205712430.html)** > > The same experts who used to swear that a 2023-24 recession was inevitable are no longer so sure. In fact, some now think the U.S. economy may have dodged a downturn entirely. ---
**Author:** ![H200h](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e79b87/32.png) [@H200h](https://community.clark.com/u/H200h)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2023, 9:37pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/2 "2023-07-11T21:37:15Z")
Oh I dunno about that… the experts have predicted 23 of the last two recessions. 😲🙃😉 ---
**Author:** ![butler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ac91a4/32.png) [@butler](https://community.clark.com/u/butler)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 1:33am UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/3 "2023-07-12T01:33:33Z")
Consumers are still spending…and putting a lot of it on credit. High inflation and higher interest rates will eventually win out…it always does… ---
**Author:** ![geezerpk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/f475e1/32.png) [@geezerpk](https://community.clark.com/u/geezerpk)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 3:29am UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/4 "2023-07-12T03:29:38Z")
> [@butler](#): > > High inflation and higher interest rates will eventually win out… Is that your darkest definition of a “win”? ---
**Author:** ![H200h](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e79b87/32.png) [@H200h](https://community.clark.com/u/H200h)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 3:40am UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/5 "2023-07-12T03:40:21Z")
> [@butler](#): > > High inflation and higher interest rates will eventually win out…it always does… Interest rates were kept down for years by the Fed’s quantitative easing and easy money policies. Did you think that could go on forever? ---
**Author:** ![butler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ac91a4/32.png) [@butler](https://community.clark.com/u/butler)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 4:15am UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/6 "2023-07-12T04:15:59Z")
> [@H200h](#): > > Interest rates were kept down for years by the Fed’s quotative easing and easy money policies. Did you think that could go on forever? I think you mean **quantitative** easing… Its common sense that no economic cycle (up or down) goes on forever…but it sure was a great time to be an investor in equities and real estate. There was a lot of net worth created during the previous low interest rate cycle. ---
**Author:** ![geezerpk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/f475e1/32.png) [@geezerpk](https://community.clark.com/u/geezerpk)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 1:16pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/7 "2023-07-12T13:16:47Z")
More bad news for the Recession Hawks? > **[Inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected as consumers get a break...](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/inflation-rose-just-0point2percent-in-june-less-than-expected-as-consumers-get-a-break-from-price-increases.html)** > > The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.3% in June and 3.1% from a year ago. > **[Inflation: Consumer prices in June rose at slowest annual rate since March 2021](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/june-cpi-inflation-data-july-13-2023-123148137.html)** > > Consumer prices rose at the slowest pace since March 2021 as inflation showed further signs of cooling in June, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday morning. ---
**Author:** ![butler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ac91a4/32.png) [@butler](https://community.clark.com/u/butler)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 2:15pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/8 "2023-07-12T14:15:15Z")
We are getting there…The Fed is following its mandate. Given that the YOY is 3% (4.8% for Core CPI) hopefully one more rate hike at the end of this month will be the last. ---
**Author:** ![H200h](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e79b87/32.png) [@H200h](https://community.clark.com/u/H200h)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 2:47pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/9 "2023-07-12T14:47:06Z")
> [@butler](#): > > I think you mean **quantitative** easing… You are qualitatively correct, mine was a quotative blunder of Brobdingnagian proportions. I’ll make the required rectifications. 🤓 ---
**Author:** ![geezerpk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/f475e1/32.png) [@geezerpk](https://community.clark.com/u/geezerpk)\ **Post date:** [July 12, 2023, 5:03pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/10 "2023-07-12T17:03:09Z")
> [@butler](#): > > hopefully one more rate hike at the end of this month will be the last. I think that most of those in the know – which probably excludes most of us here – feel the next rate hike, if it is to come, will come sometime in September. ---
**Author:** ![TeamClarkAdmin](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/community.clark.com/teamclarkadmin/32/17_2.png) [@TeamClarkAdmin](https://community.clark.com/u/TeamClarkAdmin)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2023, 5:34pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/11 "2023-07-18T17:34:47Z")
Clark agrees: > **[Why You Should Expect a Mild Recession](https://clark.com/personal-finance-credit/why-you-should-expect-a-mild-recession/)** > > Are we headed for a recession? Here's when and why money expert Clark Howard says a mild recession will likely occur in the United States. ---
**Author:** ![butler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ac91a4/32.png) [@butler](https://community.clark.com/u/butler)\ **Post date:** [July 26, 2023, 6:21pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/12 "2023-07-26T18:21:27Z")
> [@geezerpk](#): > > > [@butler](#): > > > > hopefully one more rate hike at the end of this month will be the last. > > I think that most of those in the know – which probably excludes most of us here – feel the next rate hike, if it is to come, will come sometime in September. Like I said…The Fed will hike this month. You don’t need to be an insider…you just have to follow the right economic information (in this case, the bond market). I’m hoping this is it for awhile and they let the economy respond and adjust for the rest of the year. Obviously, its going to depend on inflation data… ---
**Author:** ![pokerpro79](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a88e57/32.png) [@pokerpro79](https://community.clark.com/u/pokerpro79)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2023, 2:44pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/13 "2023-07-27T14:44:12Z")
How are you preparing for this next wave? You made the right bets on RE and they paid handsome dividends. Is this time to take chips off the table and hold cash? Collect the nice secure APR from the banks or are you looking at value stocks? Also curious to know your stance on BTC considering the printing of money and the high carrying cost of storing gold. I fear that I have been somewhat of a luddite on BTC because it is easy to give in to the fear mongering that digital money is ‘rat poison’ but their use cases are starting to sound pretty good. ---
**Author:** ![butler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ac91a4/32.png) [@butler](https://community.clark.com/u/butler)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2023, 6:27pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/14 "2023-07-27T18:27:18Z")
> [@pokerpro79](#): > > How are you preparing for this next wave? You made the right bets on RE and they paid handsome dividends. Is this time to take chips off the table and hold cash? Collect the nice secure APR from the banks or are you looking at value stocks? > Also curious to know your stance on BTC considering the printing of money and the high carrying cost of storing gold. I fear that I have been somewhat of a luddite on BTC because it is easy to give in to the fear mongering that digital money is ‘rat poison’ but their use cases are starting to sound pretty good. My personal portfolio is about 90% real estate, so I don’t spend much time on equities. Just been investing in growth ETFs in Roth accounts. When I get to 60 I will switch over to high-yield portfolio and withdraw the dividends tax free… I am hoping there will be a real estate correction here soon, especially in the vacation property market, because I have capital ready. Right now, the numbers just don’t fit our model. The macro economics don’t really favor a correction because we still have a supply problem of new and existing homes. I’m never going to sell my properties because they provide steady income and I can always pull out a lump sum of cash tax-free if necessary. I don’t do anything with BTC or any digital currency. I’m just not a believer in that asset class. I think there will be better digital assets to own in the near future. The blockchain networks are the real game changer from that sector. ---
**Author:** ![pokerpro79](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a88e57/32.png) [@pokerpro79](https://community.clark.com/u/pokerpro79)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2023, 6:16pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/15 "2023-07-28T18:16:08Z")
Makes sense. Wish you all the best and thanks for always answering so eloquently. ---
**Author:** ![ochotona](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/community.clark.com/ochotona/32/293_2.png) [@ochotona](https://community.clark.com/u/ochotona)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2023, 8:14pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/16 "2023-09-22T20:14:03Z")
UAW strike, Federal shutdown, yield curve went negative a year ago, short-term rates at highs not seen in 22 years… I know this has been “the most forecasted recession”, but how do we honestly AVOID a recession? … and I don’t really care about recession so much as I care about the stock market, which tends to do badly in recessions. Well, **including dividends** , VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) has yielded 0% since August 2021… it has gone nowhere in more than two years. “Yes, but stocks are up 20%+ from a year ago!” sure, that’s true, but that figure falls in line with many bear market rallies. I’m still invested, I can’t predict the future, I’m just playing it cautious in my allocation because maybe the “singer-person of size” hasn’t sung yet. I like getting the 5% steady with no risk. It’s a nice change. Maybe stocks will go on sale. ---
**Author:** ![ochotona](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/flex016/user_avatar/community.clark.com/ochotona/32/293_2.png) [@ochotona](https://community.clark.com/u/ochotona)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2023, 1:55pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/17 "2023-10-19T13:55:06Z")
A data point… the S&P 500 ETF VOO from Vanguard is down -7% since 12/31/2021. No big secret there… the “equal weighted S&P 500” ETF called RSP is down **-11%**. RSP won’t be overrepresenting the big few firms that make up 30% of the S&P500 market capitalization which are now going through the “AI WILL SAVE US!” mania. Takeways - the US economy as a whole is getting softer. And, as always, market-cap weighted ETFs like VOO, SPY, VTI, are not clear indicators of the US economy as a whole, as they are dominated by a few firms. The US economy is more than Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Netflix, etc. Probably none of us here work for any of them. But it’s a good bet that we’ve worked for one of the other 495 companies, or do significant business with them. ---
**Author:** ![H200h](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/e79b87/32.png) [@H200h](https://community.clark.com/u/H200h)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2023, 6:32pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/18 "2023-10-19T18:32:48Z")
My mutual funds (mostly VWENX) have gained 5.9% from 10-2022 to 10-2023. ---
**Author:** ![branchkin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3d9bf3/32.png) [@branchkin](https://community.clark.com/u/branchkin)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2023, 6:52pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/19 "2023-10-19T18:52:24Z")
Read this morning the average 30 year mortgage is now at 8%. That will slow housing down and housing is arguably the biggest dog in the economy. ---
**Author:** ![butler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ac91a4/32.png) [@butler](https://community.clark.com/u/butler)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2023, 6:53pm UTC](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165/20 "2023-10-19T18:53:56Z")
> [@H200h](#): > > My mutual funds (mostly VWENX) have gained 5.9% from 10-2022 to 10-2023. True…but if you stretch it back 1 more year…its down 20% or so. In your case (if I am remembering correctly) you probably care more about the income anyway. [Next page](https://community.clark.com/t/impending-recession-just-doesnt-seem-inevitable-perhaps/3165.md?page=2)